At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop Donk·Turn Donk·River Donk
- Formula
leads / times they acted before the previous street’s aggressor, out of position, with no bet in front- Typical range
3–15% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: players out of position to the player with the lead; the donk bettor after betting.
- Read hint
- Above: Leads into the raiser often: raise their leads more.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
A donk bet (or lead) is a bet from out of position into the player who was the aggressor on the previous street, before that player gets to act. The classic spot: the button opens, the big blind calls, and on the flop the big blind bets first instead of checking to the raiser. The normal script is to check and let the aggressor decide whether to c-bet, so a lead breaks it.
On the turn and river, the HUD’s aggressor is whoever made the last bet or raise on the previous street, not only the preflop raiser. If the big blind calls a flop c-bet and then bets the turn, that’s a turn donk. If the preflop raiser c-bets out of position, gets raised, calls, and then bets the turn, that’s a donk too: a lead into the flop raiser.
Its neighbors are easy to mix up. A probe bet is a lead on the turn or river after the aggressor checked the previous street behind, so nobody holds the lead. A c-bet is the aggressor’s own bet. Bet unopened is broader still: every first bet on a street, whoever makes it.
How it’s calculated
Donk bet = leads ÷ chances to lead. The HUD first works out who holds the lead going into each street:
- Flop: the preflop raiser, so a limped pot has no flop donk chances at all.
- Turn: the last player to bet or raise the flop.
- River: the last player to bet or raise the turn.
If the previous street was checked through, nobody holds the lead, so there’s no donk chance; when the raiser checked it through, a lead from out of position counts as a probe instead. A chance is a street where the aggressor is still in, the player is out of position to them, and the player’s first action comes with no bet in front, before the aggressor acts. It counts if they bet. In a multiway pot several players can have a chance on the same street, but once one of them leads, everyone after is facing a bet and has no chance. Streets where fewer than two players could still bet are skipped.
The stat is also kept by pot type (limped, single-raised, 3-bet, 4-bet or more) and heads-up or multiway. Turn and river donks can happen in limped pots, because someone may have bet the flop.
Example: Dev was out of position to the aggressor with no bet in front 40 times on the flop and led 6 times: 6 ÷ 40 = 15%. On the turn he had 25 chances and led twice: 2 ÷ 25 = 8%.
Why it matters
Most players check to the raiser by default, so a lead is a choice, and at low stakes it’s usually an honest one. In PokerNow home games the typical lead is a made hand that wants protection (top pair, a weak two pair), a draw looking for a cheap card, or a small “blocking” bet meant to set the price. Slowplayed monsters and pure bluffs lead less often. That makes a player’s donk percentage a guide to what their checks contain: a player who leads medium hands is checking a weaker range, and a player who never leads is checking everything, monsters included.
It changes three of your decisions. When they lead, you choose between folding, calling and raising, and the raise is where the money is against frequent leaders. When they check, you decide how often to c-bet. And when you’re the one who might lead, the aggressor’s fold to donk bet says whether it pays.
Leads tend to be small, which is why raising them works. A 33% pot lead needs to win only 24.8% of the time as a pure bluff. Raising a 3.3 bb lead to 10 bb in a 10 bb pot risks 10 bb to win 13.3 bb, so the raise needs 10 ÷ 23.3 = 42.9% folds.
Too low, about right, too high
Too low: under 3%
What it says
They check to the aggressor almost every time. That’s a common and mostly sound default, but it means their checking range is uncapped: sets, two pair and strong draws sit in there with the misses. Players like this see the raiser as the one who “should” bet and wait for you to act before showing strength. Many solid regulars, and most Nits and Rocks, sit here.
How to exploit it
Their lead tells you little because it almost never happens; their check is what matters.
- Read their check-raise before you c-bet: a sub-3% leader with a high check-raise is playing their strong hands through the check.
- When they finally lead, believe it. Fold one-pair hands to a turn or river lead from a sub-3% player unless the price is tiny.
- Don’t raise their rare leads as a bluff; that range is mostly made hands that won’t fold.
- Set your c-bet plan from their fold to c-bet, not from this number.
About right: 3–15%
What it says
They lead now and then, usually for a reason: a board that hits the caller’s range (low, connected cards), a hand that wants protection, or a draw. Their check range still holds some strong hands, and their leading range is mostly made hands and draws. Most winning regulars and plenty of recreational players land here, so the number alone won’t tell them apart.
How to exploit it
Look past the headline number.
- Check which version the tooltip shows; the badge uses the one for the current pot type. A player who leads 12% in single-raised pots and never in 3-bet pots is telling you where their leads come from.
- Compare the lead size with their usual bet size. Leads much smaller than their normal bets are usually medium hands setting the price: raise them with strong hands and good draws.
- Against a balanced leader, raise for value, call with hands that play well in position, and save bluff-raises for players whose fold to raise is high.
Too high: over 15%
What it says
They lead into the aggressor often, which usually means they bet any piece of the board: top pair, middle pair, a gutshot, a hand they “don’t want to get raised with.” Their leading range is wide and capped, and their checks lean toward air plus the odd slowplay. Fish and Maniacs often land here. In home games, a high donk with a low aggression factor everywhere else points to a player who leads made hands and calls with the rest.
How to exploit it
The HUD’s read here is “Leads into the raiser often: raise their leads more.”
- Raise their small flop leads with overpairs, two pair or better, and strong draws. Around three times the lead is enough; a raise to 10 bb over a 3.3 bb lead into 10 bb needs 42.9% folds as a pure bluff.
- Call more leads in position with hands that have equity and play well later, then attack when they check the next street.
- When they check instead of leading, their range is weaker than usual: c-bet more, and small.
- Don’t pay off big leads. A player who usually leads small and suddenly leads big is often strong.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: donk bet
The flop is the only street where the aggressor is always the preflop raiser, so flop donks only happen in raised pots. Most come from the big blind or a cold caller on boards that favor a calling range: low, connected, two-tone flops such as 7-6-5 or 8-6-4. A lead on an ace-high or king-high board is rarer and, at low stakes, usually top pair that wants to find out “where it’s at.”
Multiway pots tend to push the number up in home games. With three or four players seeing the flop, somebody often holds a piece and would rather bet than check into the field, which is a reason to consider how many of their flops are multiway before calling a player a frequent leader.
Read the flop number with their fold to c-bet. A player who leads 20% and folds to c-bets 60% has split their range into “lead with something, check and fold with nothing.” Against them, c-bet small every time they check, and raise their leads with your strong hands.
Turn: donk bet
On the turn the aggressor is whoever bet or raised last on the flop, so the turn donk catches lines a preflop-only definition would miss. The common one: they call a flop c-bet out of position and lead the turn. That usually means the turn card helped them (a flush or straight card, or a card that pairs their hand), or that they called the flop with a draw and decided to bet it.
Compare the turn number with the flop number. A player with a low flop donk and a high turn donk calls the flop and leads when the turn changes something, so look at the card: a lead on a card that completes obvious draws is strong, a lead on a blank is often a draw or a weak pair trying to take the pot. If the flop went check-check, a turn lead is a probe, not a donk, and counts there instead.
Exploit: against a frequent turn leader, raise blank-card leads with strong hands and your best draws, and fold marginal hands to leads on cards that complete the draws they called with.
River: donk bet
River donks come from the player who called the turn out of position and now leads. There are three kinds: a value bet from a player who fears you’ll check behind, a small blocking bet with a medium hand that would rather set the price than face a big bet, and a bluff with a missed draw. At low stakes the first two dominate, and size usually separates them: blocking bets are small, often a third of the pot or less.
The river is also where a capped range is most exposed. A player who called the flop and turn and then leads small rarely has the nuts, because many players check their very best hands to the aggressor hoping to check-raise or induce. That makes small river leads a good spot to raise for thin value with hands like top pair with a strong kicker, and to raise as a bluff against players who fold to raises often.
Big river leads are different. From a player whose river donk is under 3%, a pot-sized lead is close to the nuts; from a Maniac it can be anything, so let their showdowns decide how wide you call.
When it’s your own number
Your own donk percentage is visible to anyone running a HUD, and the read for a high number tells them to “raise your leads more.” If yours sits above 15%, expect thin raises from in position, and expect good players to c-bet more when you check, since your checks look weak.
To check yourself, look at your donk by pot type and street. A high flop number in 3-bet pots often means you’re leading top pair to “protect” it, which usually plays better as a check to the 3-bettor, who bets often anyway. Lead for a reason you can say out loud: a board that favors your range, at a size you’d use with both strong hands and draws. A number under 3% can’t be exploited directly, and it keeps your checks strong.
Using it on the HUD
PokerNow HUD Advanced shows the donk bet on the badges of players who are out of position to the player with the lead, before anyone has bet on the street, so you can see who is likely to lead. Once someone leads, the donk bettor’s badge shows it next to their aggression on that street. The badge uses the version for the current pot type and steps back to the plain street number when that version has fewer than 12 chances; the tooltip names the version.
Gold means over 15%, blue under 3%, and a faded number has fewer than 12 chances behind it. Donk chances pile up slowly and small samples swing hard: a 10% donk rate over 30 chances is ±5.5 points, over 100 chances ±3. Treat anything under about 30 chances as a hint, not a read.
Read it with raise donk bet and fold to donk bet for the aggressor’s side, and with check-raise for what their checks contain.
Questions
What is a donk bet in poker?
A donk bet is a bet out of position into the player who held the betting lead, made before that player acts. The name comes from the old idea that only weak players lead into the raiser. On the flop the lead goes into the preflop raiser; on the turn and river the HUD counts leads into whoever bet or raised last on the previous street.
Is donk betting bad?
Not by itself. Leading is a sound play on boards that favor the caller’s range, and some strong players lead small on low, connected flops. It becomes a leak when a player leads a wide range of medium hands and checks the rest, because their leads get raised and their checks get attacked. A donk rate over 15% on the HUD usually points to that pattern.
Donk bet vs probe bet: what’s the difference?
A donk bet leads into a player who bet or raised the previous street; a probe bet leads after the aggressor checked the previous street behind. If the button c-bets the flop and you lead the turn, that’s a donk. If the button checks the flop back and you lead the turn, that’s a probe. The HUD keeps them as separate stats.
What is a normal donk bet percentage?
The HUD treats 3–15% as typical on every street. Below 3% a player almost always checks to the aggressor; above 15% they lead often enough that raising their leads pays. Multiway pots and turn leads after a flop call can push honest players toward the top of the band, so check which version the tooltip shows before calling it a leak.