At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop FXR·Turn FXR·River FXR
- Formula
folds / times they bet and a player who had checked raised them- Typical range
35–65% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: the c-bettor after betting, and a bettor facing a check-raise. Panel on your turn: when you can check-raise.
- Read hint
- Above: Folds to check-raises: check-raise bluff them.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
Fold to check-raise is the bettor’s side of a check-raise. The player bet into a check, the player who checked raised, and they folded. It’s the stat that tells you whether your check-raise bluffs will work.
The common spot is a c-bet: the button opens, the big blind calls and checks the flop, the button c-bets and the big blind raises. But it counts any bet into a player who had checked earlier on the street: a stab after a missed c-bet, a turn barrel, a bet in a multiway pot where the check-raiser sits two seats away and someone called in between.
Fold to check-raise is a subset of fold to raise, which counts folds to any raise after betting. Comparing the two shows whether a player treats a check-raise as more dangerous than a raise from a player who hadn’t checked. It’s also different from fold to c-bet, which is the caller folding; here the folder is the one who bet first.
How it’s calculated
Fold to check-raise = folds ÷ times they bet and a player who had checked raised them.
- Chance: a street where they bet with no bet in front, a player who had checked earlier on that street made a full raise, and they faced it.
- Counts: if they folded.
- Excluded: raises that weren’t full raises (a short all-in for less than a minimum raise), spots where a third player re-raised before the action came back, and streets where fewer than two players could still bet (not everyone all-in).
The bet doesn’t have to be a c-bet, and the check-raiser doesn’t have to act right after the bettor; in a multiway pot, other players can call in between. The stat is kept by street only, with every bet size together.
Example: Ana bet the flop and was check-raised 18 times. She folded 11: 11 ÷ 18 = 61%. On the turn she was check-raised 7 times and folded twice: 2 ÷ 7 = 29%, but at 7 chances that number shows faded and isn’t worth acting on yet.
Why it matters
The check-raise bluff is one of the most expensive plays in a hand, and this number decides whether it’s profitable. In a 10 bb pot, raising a 5 bb bet to 15 bb risks 15 bb to win 15 bb, so a pure bluff needs 50% folds. Raising a 3.3 bb bet to 9.9 bb risks 9.9 bb to win 13.3 bb and needs 42.7%. A bettor who folds 65% makes both bluffs profitable before you count your equity; one who folds 35% makes both lose unless you hold a draw.
It also shows how a player builds their betting range. A high fold to check-raise usually means they bet a wide range, including air and weak pairs, and fold whatever can’t stand pressure. A low one means they bet a range that wants to continue, or that they simply don’t believe raises.
The bettor has math of their own. Facing a 3x check-raise of a half-pot bet, they need 25% equity to call once. Flush draws and open-ended straight draws on the flop usually have about that or more, so a player who folds them is overfolding.
Too low, about right, too high
Too low: under 35%
What it says
They rarely let go of a bet once it’s raised. Either their betting range is strong (a tight, value-heavy bettor) or they don’t believe check-raises and call them with one pair and draws. Stations who bet only when they hit and aggressive players who think everyone is bluffing both show up here. Check their c-bet: a low FXR with a high c-bet is a player who calls raises too light; a low FXR with a low c-bet is just betting strong hands.
How to exploit it
- Cut pure-bluff check-raises. Against common sizes they need 42.7–50% folds, and this player won’t give it.
- Check-raise for value thinner: top pair with a good kicker can check-raise a player who calls raises with second pair.
- Semi-bluff only with strong draws that are happy to get called.
- Against a light caller, size your value check-raises bigger.
- Keep betting after they call. A player who calls a flop check-raise with second pair often calls a turn bet with it too, so your value hands should fire again.
About right: 35–65%
What it says
They fold to check-raises at a reasonable rate: the bottom of their betting range goes, the top continues. That’s close to the balance point for common sizes, so check-raise bluffs are neither free money nor hopeless. Most regulars sit here, and so do recreational players who bet top pair and fold everything else when raised. The number still hides the board: many players in this band fold almost everything on boards that missed them and almost nothing on boards that hit.
How to exploit it
- Pick your check-raise bluffs by board: raise where your calling range hits and theirs misses, such as low, connected flops.
- Use draws as your bluffs so you have equity when called.
- Raise small bets. Against a 33% bet a 3x raise needs 42.7% folds; against a 66% bet it needs 54.4%.
- Compare it with their fold to raise. If they fold more to check-raises than to other raises, the check-raise is the better weapon against them.
Too high: over 65%
What it says
They bet a lot and give up to raises. A player over 65% fires a wide range, often c-betting nearly every flop, and folds anything that isn’t strong when raised. Many tight regulars and fit-or-fold c-bettors land here. So do cautious players who won’t play a big pot with one pair: they fold top pair to a raise because the pot got big, not because of the board. The HUD’s read here is “Folds to check-raises: check-raise bluff them.”
How to exploit it
- Check-raise bluff them with backdoor draws, gutshots and overcards on boards where their range missed. A raise to 3x a half-pot bet needs 50% folds, and they give more.
- Target small bets in particular; a 3x raise of a 33% bet needs only 42.7%. Their c-bet size tells you how often you’ll get one.
- Your value check-raises get fewer calls, so with your very best hands, sometimes just call and let them keep betting.
- Check their turn and river numbers too; if they stay high, delaying the bluff to the turn costs less on the flop.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: fold to check-raise
On the flop, most chances are c-bets that got check-raised. The bettor’s range is widest here, especially for players who c-bet almost everything, so the flop number is often the highest of the three. A flop FXR near the top of the band is normal for a player with a high c-bet, because many of those c-bets are air.
That doesn’t make folding correct. Against a 3x raise of a 33% c-bet, the bettor needs only 22.1% equity to call once, and most draws have it. A flop FXR over 65% usually means draws are being folded.
Exploit: against a high flop FXR, check-raise small c-bets on boards that favor your calling range, using backdoor flush draws, gutshots and overcards as your bluffs. Keep the raise around three times the bet; a bigger raise needs more folds and gains nothing if they’re folding anyway.
Turn: fold to check-raise
On the turn the bettor is usually firing a second barrel, so their range is already narrower and stronger, and they should fold less often to a raise. But a turn check-raise also comes from a stronger range at low stakes, which pushes good players to fold more. The two effects pull in opposite directions, so turn numbers vary a lot from player to player.
The pot is bigger, so the raise is bigger. In a 20 bb pot, a 10 bb bet raised to 30 bb risks 30 bb to win 30 bb: the same 50% break-even as the half-pot example on the flop, with twice the chips at stake.
Exploit: a player with a normal flop FXR and a high turn FXR barrels turns as bluffs and gives up when raised. Call their flop c-bet, then check-raise the turn on a card that’s good for your range, such as a card that brings a flush draw or completes a straight you could hold.
River: fold to check-raise
River check-raises at low stakes are mostly value, so folding to them is mostly right. A river FXR inside the typical range belongs to a sensible player. A river FXR under 35% is a player who calls river raises with one pair and pays off value check-raises, and that’s the more common leak.
A high river FXR is rarer and more interesting: it’s a player who value bets thin on the river and folds when raised. A river check-raise bluff works against them, but it’s expensive, and there’s no draw to fall back on when called. Use it sparingly, and pick hands that block their strongest hands, such as the ace of the suit that would make a flush.
Exploit: against a low river FXR, check-raise your strong value hands big on the river, since they call with worse. Against a high one, a well-chosen river check-raise bluff can take pots their thin value bets were winning.
When it’s your own number
If your fold to check-raise is over 65%, the read other players see on you is “check-raise bluff your bets,” and they will. Expect more raises on low, connected boards and against your small c-bets.
To check yourself, compare your fold to check-raise with your c-bet. If both are high, you’re betting too much air and paying for it. Either c-bet less on boards that favor the caller, or keep the c-bets and continue more with draws and good pairs when raised: against a 3x raise of a half-pot bet you need 25% equity to call once, and a flop flush draw usually has about that. If yours is under 35%, make sure you aren’t calling river check-raises with one pair.
Using it on the HUD
Fold to check-raise shows on the c-bettor’s badge after they bet, and on the bettor’s badge when they face a check-raise. On your turn, when you checked and now face a bet, the panel offers the check-raise and shows the bettor’s fold to check-raise beside it, so you see the fold rate before you decide.
Gold means over 65%, blue under 35%, faded under 12 chances. There are no narrower versions. Check-raises are rare, so this stat fills slowly: a 50% fold rate over 30 chances is ±9 points and over 100 chances ±5. Expect the flop number to take hundreds of hands, and the turn and river numbers many sessions, before they mean much.
Read it with the player’s c-bet and fold to raise on the same street. PokerNow HUD Advanced keeps all three, so you can tell a wide bettor who folds to all pressure from one who only folds to check-raises.
Questions
What is a good fold to check-raise percentage?
Between 35% and 65% is typical on each street. Against common bet sizes, a 3x check-raise needs about 43–50% folds to profit as a pure bluff, so a bettor near the middle of the band is close to the balance point. Over 65% is open to check-raise bluffs; under 35% means check-raise for value only.
How do you exploit someone who folds to check-raises?
Check-raise them as a bluff, mostly against small bets on boards that favor your calling range. Use draws and backdoor draws so you have equity when called. A raise to three times a 33% bet needs 42.7% folds, so a player who folds 65% or more pays for every bluff, and the HUD’s read for them says exactly that.
Fold to check-raise vs fold to raise: what’s the difference?
Fold to raise counts every time a bettor folds to a raise on that street. Fold to check-raise is the subset where the raiser had checked first. Comparing the two shows whether a player treats check-raises as stronger than other raises, and which kind of raise works better against them.
Should you fold to a river check-raise?
Usually, unless you have a strong hand or the raiser is a known bluffer. River check-raises at low stakes are mostly value, because there are no draws left to semi-bluff with. If the raiser’s river check-raise is well over 16% or you’ve seen them show river bluffs, call more with hands that beat a bluff.