At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop FStb·Turn FStb·River FStb
- Formula
folds / times they checked with the lead and then faced a bet from a player in position- Typical range
35–60% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: the player with the lead facing a stab. Panel on your turn: when you stab.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
Fold to stab is the raiser’s side of the stab. The player had the lead (they raised preflop, or kept c-betting), chose to check, and a player behind them bet. Now they fold, call or raise. This stat is how often they fold.
It tells you what a check from the raiser means. A raiser who folds most of the time after checking is checking hands they’ve given up on. A raiser who rarely folds is checking hands they plan to keep: traps, pairs they want to take to showdown, check-raises.
Neighbors that get confused with it:
- Check-fold counts any check followed by a fold to anyone’s bet, with or without the lead. Fold to stab is narrower: it needs the lead and a bet from a player in position.
- Fold to probe is the raiser who checked back the street before, now facing a lead from out of position.
- Fold to c-bet is the caller folding to the raiser’s bet, the opposite roles.
How it’s calculated
The rule, per street:
- The lead: the preflop raiser on the flop; on the turn, whoever c-bet the flop and wasn’t raised; on the river, the player who c-bet both earlier streets.
- Chance: the player held the lead, checked as their first action with no bet in front, a player in position to them then bet, and they faced that bet with no raise in between.
- Event: they folded. Their calls and raises show up in check-call and check-raise.
- Excluded: streets where everyone else was all-in, leaving fewer than two players able to bet.
Formula: folds ÷ stabs faced. There are no narrower versions, so you see one number per street.
Example: Lena raised preflop and checked the flop as the raiser 24 times. A player behind her bet 15 of those times, with nobody raising in between. She folded 9, called 4 and check-raised 2: fold to stab 9 / 15 = 60%. On the turn, after c-betting the flop and getting called, she checked 10 times and faced 7 stabs. She folded 5: 5 / 7 = 71%, faded because 7 chances is under 12.
Why it matters
Fold to stab answers the question every in-position player asks when the raiser checks: is this a give-up or a trap? Combined with the raiser’s c-bet, it tells you how much a stab earns.
Say a raiser c-bets 55% of flops and folds to 60% of stabs. Of 100 flops they check 45, and if you stab every one, 0.6 × 45 = 27 end right there. A half-pot stab needs folds 33.3% of the time to profit as a pure bluff, and 60% clears that easily, so any two cards show a profit if their fold rate holds.
The non-folds matter just as much. A low fold to stab with a high check-raise means their checks are loaded with strong hands: a stab walks into a trap. A low fold to stab with a high check-call means they check medium pairs and call, so value-bet thinner and stop bluffing.
The turn version carries more money. A raiser who c-bet the flop, got called and now checks the turn has already put chips in, and the pot is bigger. A high turn fold to stab means they walk away from that pot often, and a float on the flop is how you collect it.
Too low, about right, too high
The HUD colors fold to stab against its 35–60% range but makes no read from it. The same range applies on every street.
Too low: under 35%
What it says
The raiser doesn’t give up after checking. Their checks hold hands they plan to continue with: medium pairs for pot control, strong hands for a trap, draws they’ll call or check-raise with. That can be a thoughtful player who checks a balanced range, or a sticky one who won’t fold any pair once they’ve raised preflop.
Their check-raise tells you which. Lots of check-raises means traps; lots of check-calls means stickiness.
How to exploit it
- Stab less with pure air. A bluff needs folds, and you won’t get many.
- Value-bet thinner when they check. Second pair or top pair with a weak kicker can bet for value against a player who calls with weaker pairs.
- Check back medium-strength hands you don’t want check-raised.
- Don’t float their flop c-bets just to steal the turn. When they check the turn, they call or raise more often than they fold.
- Against a high check-raiser, bet only hands that can call a raise, and take free cards with your draws.
About right: 35–60%
What it says
The raiser checks a mix: some give-ups, some medium hands, some traps. Most solid players fall in this range. Many fold more on the turn than on the flop, because a check after betting the flop is more often a give-up than a first check is.
The range is 25 points wide, so a player near 35% and one near 60% are very different: note which end they sit at, and whether the turn number moves away from the flop one.
How to exploit it
- Read the streets separately. A raiser at 45% on the flop and 70% on the turn gives up after one barrel: float their flop c-bets in position and bet when they check the turn.
- Pick your boards. Stab low, connected flops that miss most raising ranges, and check back high-card flops where the raiser’s check is more likely a trap.
- Pair it with their c-bet. A low c-bet with a high fold to stab is the fit-or-fold raiser, the easiest target at the table.
Too high: over 60%
What it says
The raiser checks when they miss and folds when someone bets. Their c-bets carry their hits; their checks are give-ups. That’s fit-or-fold postflop, common among tight players and casual players who raise good hands preflop and play the flop face-up. In many PokerNow games it’s a common pattern, since plenty of players only bet when they hit.
The higher this number, the closer each check is to an announcement that they don’t have much.
How to exploit it
- Stab every time they check, with any two cards, at 33–50% pot. A 33% stab needs folds only 24.8% of the time.
- Float their flop c-bets in position more widely, planning to bet the turn when they check.
- With strong hands, stab small to keep their few continuing hands in, rather than betting big into a range that folds.
- If their check-raise is low too, the stab carries almost no risk: their non-folds are calls you can play against on later streets.
- Don’t slowplay behind them. A check back gives them a free card, and they won’t bet for you.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: fold to stab
On the flop, a stab chance only exists when the raiser is out of position to someone and checks: blind-versus-blind pots, pots where a player flatted in position, and 3-bet pots where the 3-bettor sits in the blinds. The check hasn’t cost the raiser anything yet, so a fold gives up only the preflop pot.
Fit-or-fold raisers fold a lot here, because their checking range is their misses. Raisers who check a balanced range out of position fold less, especially in 3-bet pots, where they hold many overpairs they’re happy to check-call or check-raise with.
Flop exploit: in 3-bet pots, be careful. Fold to stab isn’t split by pot type, so a high flop number built mostly in single-raised pots may not carry over to a 3-bettor checking an overpair. In single-raised pots against a high number, stab small with everything.
Turn: fold to stab
For many players the turn number is higher. The raiser c-bet the flop, got called, and now checks: for most players that’s a give-up, because they’d keep betting a good hand. Their range here is c-bet bluffs that missed again, plus some medium pairs that want to slow down.
This is where floats pay off. The raiser’s double barrel is the other half of the picture. A raiser who double barrels under 35% checks more than 65% of turns after being called, and if they fold over 60% to a turn stab, at least 0.65 × 0.60 = 39% of those turns end with your bet, before your own hand matters.
Turn exploit: against a high turn fold to stab, call flop c-bets in position with backdoor draws and overcards, and bet when they check the turn. Against a low one, their turn check is often a medium pair: bet only hands that beat one pair, and check back the rest.
River: fold to stab
On the river the raiser has bet twice and checked once. Their range is mostly missed draws and medium-strength made hands. The missed draws fold to any bet; the pairs decide this number.
A high river fold to stab means they fold their medium pairs too: bluff your own missed draws when they check. A low one means they call with the pairs they barreled with, so bet only for value, and thinner than you might think. There’s no card to come, so their decision is pure bluff-catching.
River exploit: size the bluff against the number. A half-pot stab needs folds 33.3% of the time; a pot-size stab needs 50%. Against a player at 40%, the half-pot bluff profits and the pot-size one doesn’t, if their fold rate is the same at both sizes. River chances are rare, so check the sample before trusting it.
When it’s your own number
The HUD makes no read from fold to stab, but players in position notice when your checks are give-ups. If yours is high, they’ll stab every time you check, and float your c-bets to do it on the turn.
Check yours per street. Above 60% means you’re checking only weak hands: start checking some strong hands out of position, such as sets and top pairs on dry boards, and check-raise or check-call the stab. Call more with medium pairs that have showdown value too. Below 35% means you rarely give up, which is fine if you’re checking strong hands and a leak if you’re calling down with weak pairs. Your check-call and check-raise show which.
Using it on the HUD
The badge shows fold to stab for the player with the lead when they face a stab. On your turn, when you stab, the panel shows how often the player with the lead folds to it, next to the fold rates under your size buttons.
Gold means over 60%, blue under 35%. There are no narrower versions, so you always see the street total. Under 12 chances it’s faded.
Chances are rare: the raiser has to check and someone in position has to bet. A 50% number is ±9 points over 30 chances, so 30 stabs faced gives a rough read and 100 a solid one. Until then, lean on the raiser’s c-bet number. A raiser who c-bets 40% checks 60 of every 100 flop chances, and since nobody hits that often, most of those checks are misses. One who c-bets 75% checks only 25, and those are more likely to be traps. Read it with check-raise and check-call to see what the non-folds are.
Questions
What does fold to stab mean in poker?
Fold to stab is how often a player who had the lead, usually the preflop raiser, checks, faces a bet from a player in position, and folds. It shows whether their checks are give-ups or traps. The HUD keeps a flop, turn and river version, each with a typical range of 35–60%.
What is a good fold to stab percentage?
Between 35% and 60% is typical. Above 60%, the player checks mostly weak hands and folds them, which makes stabbing them profitable with almost anything. Below 35%, their checks hold medium and strong hands, so bluff stabs lose money and thin value bets get called.
Fold to stab vs check-fold: what’s the difference?
Check-fold counts every time a player checks and then folds to a bet, in any role. Fold to stab only counts it when the player had the lead and the bet came from a player in position. A player can have a normal check-fold but a high fold to stab if they give up as the raiser.
How do you exploit a high fold to stab?
Bet whenever they check. A 33% pot stab needs folds only 24.8% of the time, so against a player folding over 60%, almost any hand profits as a bluff if their fold rate holds at that size. Float their flop c-bets in position too, and bet the turn when they check.