At a glance
- On the HUD
- Small blind FtS-SB·Big blind FtS-BB
- Formula
folds / steals faced in the blind with nobody else in- Typical range
- Small blind 55–85%
- Big blind 35–62%
- Where it shows
- Badge: the small blind, before anyone opens and facing a steal. Panel on your turn: when you can steal, the small blind’s fold rate against your seat. Badge: the big blind, before anyone opens and facing a steal. Panel on your turn: when you can steal, the big blind’s fold rate against your seat.
- Read hint
- Above: Overfolds the SB: steal more.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
Fold to steal measures one decision: everyone folds to the cutoff, button or small blind, that player raises, and a blind has to answer with nobody else in the pot. It’s how often the blind lets the pot go.
The HUD keeps two numbers, because the two blinds face very different prices. FtS-SB is the small blind: half a big blind in, out of position all hand, the big blind still behind. It should fold most hands. FtS-BB is the big blind: a full big blind in, last to act preflop, the best price at the table. It should fold far less.
Don’t confuse it with its neighbors. Steal attempt (ATS) is the other side of the spot: how often a player opens from those seats. Fold vs open counts folds to any open from any seat, not just steals. Fold to 3-bet is the stealer folding after a blind re-raises.
How it’s calculated
A chance needs four things: the player is in a blind, the first raise came from the cutoff, button or small blind, nobody limped before it, and the player’s first action after it faced that raise alone, with nobody calling in between. A fold counts; a call or 3-bet doesn’t.
- FtS-SB = folds / steals faced in the small blind
- FtS-BB = folds / steals faced in the big blind
Plenty of steals give a blind no chance. If the button calls a cutoff open, someone is already in, so neither blind is charged. If the small blind 3-bets a button open, the big blind faces two raises and isn’t charged either. The small blind can only face steals from the cutoff and button; the big blind faces them from all three seats.
Both numbers are also kept by the stealer’s seat: vs CO, vs BTN and, for the big blind, vs SB. BB defend vs steal is 100% minus FtS-BB, so the two always move together.
Example: Theo faced 22 steals in the big blind and folded 13 → 13 / 22 = 59% FtS-BB. In the small blind he faced 18 steals and folded 15 → 15 / 18 = 83% FtS-SB.
Why it matters
Fold to steal tells you how much of the 1.5 big blinds posted every orbit you can take without a hand. A 2.5 bb steal risks 2.5 to win the 1.5 in the blinds, so it shows a profit on the spot if the blinds fold more than 2.5 / (2.5 + 1.5) = 62.5% of the time together. From the button both blinds must fold, so multiply. A small blind at 80% and a big blind at 55% fold together 0.80 × 0.55 = 44%: pure bluffs lose, so steal hands that play well when called. A small blind at 90% and a big blind at 75% fold 0.90 × 0.75 = 67.5%: any two cards show an immediate profit.
Multiplying is fair because FtS-BB only counts spots where nobody else is in, which is exactly what the big blind faces once the small blind folds.
It also tells you what you’re up against when they don’t fold. A big blind folding 75% defends roughly its best quarter of hands; one folding 30% defends plenty of junk you can value-bet thinly.
Too low, about right, too high
Too low: SB under 55%, BB under 35%
What it says
A small blind under 55% plays back at nearly half of all steals, mostly by calling: a player who hates giving up a posted blind, common among Fish and Stations. A big blind under 35% defends close to two hands in three, suited junk and weak offsuit kings included. Against a stealer who opens everything some of that is reasonable; usually it’s a wide, weak range that misses most flops. The HUD turns a low FtS-BB into the read “Defends wide: steal tighter, value-bet more.”
How to exploit it
- Cut the bottom of your steals from the seats they defend against: weak offsuit hands like K4o, Q6o and J7o go. Keep suited hands, connectors and broadways that make strong top pairs.
- Steal bigger with your good hands and value-bet thinner after they call: top pair with a weak kicker bets the turn.
- Bluff the flop on ace-high and king-high boards their weak calls missed; check more on low connected boards that hit a wide calling range.
- Look at their 3-bet vs steal. If it’s low too, nearly all their defense is flat calls, and their rare 3-bets are strong.
About right: SB 55–85%, BB 35–62%
What it says
In range, the blind defends a sensible share of hands for the price: the small blind folds most of its range, the big blind uses its discount to defend wide but not recklessly. Inside the band, the stealer’s-seat split says more than the total. A big blind who folds 45% to the button and 60% to the cutoff is adjusting to how wide each seat opens, which is a good sign about the player.
How to exploit it
Against blinds in range, your edge is position and postflop play, not the steal itself. Open a solid range for your seat, c-bet small on dry high-card boards and check more on low, connected boards that favor the big blind’s calls.
Then hunt for a leak elsewhere, such as their fold to c-bet after they defend. Check the seat split in the tooltip too: a blind who folds as often to a button as to a cutoff is probably overfolding to the button, so open wider from there.
Too high: SB over 85%, BB over 62%
What it says
The blind gives up too often. A small blind over 85% defends only strong hands and 3-bets only for value. A big blind over 62% folds hands that get the price to continue, usually out of dislike for playing out of position. Nits and Rocks live here. With enough chances the HUD makes the read “Overfolds the SB: steal more.” or “Overfolds the BB: steal more.”
How to exploit it
- Widen your steals. Multiply both blinds’ fold rates and compare with your break-even: 62.5% for a 2.5 bb open.
- Steal smaller. A 2 bb steal risks 2 to win 1.5 and needs only 2 / 3.5 = 57.1% folds, and many overfolding blinds fold just as often to the smaller size.
- When they continue, believe them: fold light steals to their 3-bets.
- From the small blind against an overfolding big blind, raise instead of completing. A 3 bb raise from the small blind puts in 2.5 more to win 1.5 and needs 2.5 / 4 = 62.5% folds.
When it’s your own number
The reads on your own badge show what others can use. A high FtS-BB tells them to “steal more when you’re in the big blind”; a low one tells them to “steal less against your big blind and value-bet you more.” A high FtS-SB invites more steals into your small blind.
Check yours by the stealer’s seat. In the big blind you should fold least to small blind steals (you have position), more to the button and most to the cutoff. Against a 2.5 bb button open you call 1.5 more into a 4 bb pot and need 1.5 / 5.5 = 27.3% equity, a bar many hands clear. If your FtS-BB is over 62%, start defending the suited and connected hands you’ve been folding.
Using it on the HUD
PokerNow HUD Advanced shows fold to steal on the blinds’ badges in two spots: before anyone opens, and when they face a steal. On your turn, when you can steal from the cutoff, button or small blind, the panel lists each blind’s fold rate against your seat and multiplies them into the chance everyone folds.
Gold is above the typical range, blue below, and under 12 chances the number is faded. When the version against your seat has fewer than 12 chances, the HUD steps back to the blind’s overall number and the tooltip says so.
Chances come slowly. A 70% FtS-BB over 20 chances is ±10 points, over 50 it’s ±6.5, and the read needs that margin: over 50 chances, 70% minus 6.5 is still above 62%, so “Overfolds the BB” appears; over 20 it doesn’t yet. Read it next to ATS, 3-bet vs steal and BB call vs steal.
Questions
What is a good fold to steal percentage?
It depends on the blind: a typical small blind folds 55–85% of steals, a typical big blind 35–62%. The big blind should fold much less because it already has a full big blind in and closes the action. Against a 2.5 bb button open it calls 1.5 more into a 4 bb pot and needs only 27.3% equity.
Why does the small blind fold to steals more than the big blind?
Because it gets a worse price and a worse seat. The small blind has only half a big blind in, plays out of position against the stealer, and has the big blind behind it. The big blind closes the action with a full big blind in, so it can defend many more hands.
How do I know if I can steal with any two cards?
Multiply the blinds’ fold to steal numbers and compare with your break-even. A 2.5 bb steal risks 2.5 to win 1.5, so it profits immediately when the blinds fold more than 62.5% together. Blinds folding 90% and 75% fold 67.5% together, so every hand profits before the flop.
How many hands do you need before fold to steal is reliable?
More than most stats, because a blind only gets a chance when the action folds to a steal. Twenty chances can take several hundred hands, and a 70% number over 20 chances is still ±10 points. Treat it as a lean until 50 or more chances.