At a glance
- On the HUD
- RBl
- Formula
shown river bets and raises with air / shown river bets and raises- Typical range
15–40%
- Where it shows
- Badge, river: the bettor.
- Read hint
- Above: Bluffs rivers often: call down lighter. Below: River bets are value: fold marginal hands.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
RBl answers a narrow question: when this player makes the last bet or raise on the river and you get to see their cards, how often do they have nothing? Nothing means air: no pair of their own, a missed draw, or a hand that only plays the board.
The word that matters is “shown”. A bluff that works never gets shown: the opponent folds, the cards go in the muck, and the HUD learns nothing. So RBl isn’t “how often they bluff the river”. It’s “how often their called river bets are bluffs”. That’s still the number you want when you’re the one deciding whether to call, but it comes with a slant, explained below.
Its neighbors measure how much they bet, not what with. Aggression factor counts their bets and raises against their calls, and the triple barrel on the c-bet page shows how often they keep firing on the river. RBl is the only stat that looks inside those bets.
How it’s calculated
RBl = shown river bets and raises with air ÷ shown river bets and raises.
- A chance: a showdown on a full five-card board where they made the river’s last bet or raise and their cards are known: shown at showdown, or your own hand.
- It counts: when the hand was air: no pair of its own (a pair on the board doesn’t count for them), a missed draw, or a hand that only plays the board.
- Never seen: river bets that got folds, hands whose cards weren’t shown, and showdowns where someone else made the last river bet or raise.
The air test is strict about pairs. Bottom pair or a small pocket pair turned into a bluff counts as a made hand, so players who bluff with weak pairs read lower than they play. Ace-high on a double-paired board counts as air even when it was meant as thin value.
The HUD keeps one version, with no splits. Example: Gus made the last river bet in 14 showdowns where his cards were shown, and 4 were air: 4 ÷ 14 = 29%, inside the typical range. Over the same sessions he also bet rivers that got folds, and none of those enter the stat.
Why it matters
When you hold a bluff-catcher, a hand that beats their bluffs and loses to their value, your call wins exactly as often as they’re bluffing. So the decision comes down to their bluff share against the price you’re getting. A balanced river bettor bluffs just often enough to make your call break even, which is the caller’s required equity:
| River bet | Bluff share that makes a call break even |
|---|---|
| 50% of the pot | 25% |
| 100% of the pot | 33.3% |
| 133% of the pot | 36.3% |
| 200% of the pot | 40% |
If their RBl sits above the number for the size they bet, calling with bluff-catchers makes money; below it, folding does. The typical 15–40% runs from value-heavy up to balanced at very large sizes.
Now the slant. A bet only reaches the stat if someone calls, and the caller decides on their own hand, not the bettor’s. Within one size on similar boards, called bets are roughly a fair sample. Across spots they aren’t: big bluffs on scary rivers get folds more often than small value bets, so a player who bluffs big can read lower than they play. A player bluffing into a table of callers, where everyone’s WTSD runs high, gets most of their bluffs counted.
Too low, about right, too high
Too low: under 15%
What it says
When they bet the river and get called, they almost always have a pair or better. That’s a value-heavy river bettor: passive players, nits and many home-game regulars who only bet the river when they like their hand. Keep the blind spots in mind, though. A player whose bluffs all get folds, or who bluffs with weak pairs, can also read low.
How to exploit it
The HUD’s read: their river bets are value, so fold marginal hands.
- Fold one-pair bluff-catchers to their river bets, especially big ones. Against a pot-size bet you need to win 33.3%; at 10% air you’re far short.
- Fold to their river raises with anything short of a very strong hand.
- Don’t make hero calls on a hunch. The sample says they aren’t bluffing.
- Value-bet thinner when they check the river. A player who bets their good hands has fewer of them left in the check.
About right: 15–40%
What it says
Their called river bets are a mix of value and air, close to what a balanced bettor would show at common sizes. They turn some missed draws into bets and give up others. Nothing here says call or fold every time; the bet size decides it. Small differences inside the range mean little: at a dozen chances the error around 30% is about ±13 points.
How to exploit it
Compare the number with the size, every time. At 30%, a half-pot bet asks your bluff-catcher to win 25%, so calling is fine; a 2× pot overbet asks for 40%, so fold. Then look at the rest of the line: a player with a high AF and a high triple barrel bets the river often, so more of those bets are likely bluffs than a passive player’s would be. Check W$SD too: a low one means their called bets lose often, which points the same way.
Too high: over 40%
What it says
More than 40% of their called river bets are air: more than a balanced bettor shows even at twice the pot. They turn most missed draws into bets and read every check as weakness. This is common with maniacs and with players whose AF is high on every street. A low W$SD usually comes with it, since their bluffs keep getting called.
How to exploit it
The HUD’s read: they bluff rivers often, so call down lighter.
- Call their river bets with any hand that beats a bluff: top pair, second pair, even ace-high on boards where the draws missed.
- Check medium hands to them on the river instead of betting. Let them bluff.
- Raise only for value. A bluff-catcher that raises gets their air to fold, which a call would have beaten anyway.
- Keep checking the sample: at 30% the error is ±10 points over 20 chances.
When it’s your own number
RBl makes reads on your own badge. Under 15%, observant opponents can fold marginal hands to your river bets. Over 40%, they can call your river bets lighter. Your own number uses your hole cards whether or not you showed them, but it still only counts river bets that got called.
To tune yours, aim near the balanced share for the size you use: about 25% air in your called half-pot river bets, about 33.3% at pot size. If you’re well under, add missed draws as bluffs on rivers where your line makes sense. If you’re over, check back more missed draws and value-bet thinner, and look at your river call wins to see how the other side of the spot treats you.
Using it on the HUD
RBl shows on the river on the bettor’s badge, labeled RBl, next to their W$SD and their usual betting stats: exactly when you’re deciding whether to call. Colors: gold over 40%, blue under 15%, faded with fewer than 12 chances. It makes reads both ways (“Bluffs rivers often: call down lighter.” and “River bets are value: fold marginal hands.”) once it has 12 chances and sits a standard error outside the range. There are no narrower versions.
It fills up slowly, because each chance needs a called river bet and shown cards. At 30%, the error is ±13 points over 12 chances and ±10 over 20, so 20 shown river bets at 30% still fit anything from 20% to 40%. Treat it as a lean, and read it with AF, W$SD and their river call wins as a caller.
Questions
What does river bluff (shown) mean on a HUD?
It’s the share of a player’s river bets and raises that were air, counted only in hands that went to showdown with their cards shown. Air means no pair of their own, a missed draw, or a hand that only plays the board. It tells you how often their called river bets are bluffs.
Why doesn’t the HUD count river bluffs that got a fold?
Because nobody sees the cards. When a river bet gets a fold, the hand ends without a showdown, so there’s no way to know whether it was a bluff. That’s why the stat is labeled “shown”: it reads only called bets, which can undercount players who bluff big on scary rivers.
How often should you bluff the river?
In theory, as often as the caller’s required equity: about 25% of your river bets at half pot, 33.3% at pot size and 40% at twice the pot. That share leaves a bluff-catcher indifferent between calling and folding. Against players who call too much, bluff less; against players who fold too much, more.
What counts as air for river bluff (shown)?
A hand with no pair of its own. A pair on the board doesn’t count for the player, missed draws count as air, and so does a hand that only plays the board. Otherwise, a pocket pair or a pair made with a hole card counts as a made hand, so bluffs with weak pairs don’t show up as bluffs.