At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop F80–110%·Turn F80–110%·River F80–110%
- Formula
folds / first times they faced a single bet of 80–110% of the pot on the street- Typical range
30–60% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: players facing a bet of this size. Panel on your turn: under each bet-size button.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
Fold vs large bets covers the pot-sized bet: anything from 80% to 110% of the pot. It counts the first time on a street a player faces a single bet that size, with no raise yet, and how often they fold.
These bets show up as big turn barrels, pot-sized river value bets and the flat “pot” some home-game players use for everything. They polarize: the bettor usually has a strong hand or a bluff, rarely a medium one. That turns the defender’s job into bluff-catching, and it’s the size where players most often let fear or curiosity decide.
It’s the third rung of the size ladder, after small bets and medium bets and before overbets. None of the HUD’s default size buttons (20%, 33%, 66% and 133%) lands in this bucket, so you’ll mostly meet this number on the badges of players facing a big bet rather than under a button. It differs from fold vs bet, which mixes every size: a player can look normal there and still fold far too much to pot-sized bets.
How it’s calculated
A chance is the first time on a street a player faces a single bet, not yet raised, that was 80–110% of the pot. A fold counts; a call or a raise doesn’t. Fold vs large bets = folds ÷ chances, per street.
- Size = the bettor’s chips for that bet ÷ everything in the middle before it (earlier streets plus dead money).
- Edges: exactly 80% counts as large, and so does exactly 110%. Just under 80% is medium; anything over 110% is an overbet.
- One chance per street, and none if the bet was raised before it reached them.
- Multiway: each player who faces the bet unraised gets a chance.
- Streets where fewer than two players could still bet don’t count.
There are no position or pot-type versions, and when the large bucket is too thin the HUD falls back to fold vs bet (any size).
Example: the river pot is 30 big blinds and Kai bets 30, which is 100%, a large bet. Mira has faced a large river bet 14 times and folded 9: 9 ÷ 14 = 64%. That’s over the 50% a pot-sized bluff needs, but at 14 chances the error is about ±13 points (√(0.64 × 0.36 ÷ 14)), so treat it as a lean, not a fact.
Why it matters
The pot-sized bet is a clean test, and the price shifts across the bucket:
| Bet | Bluff needs folds | Caller needs equity | Minimum defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 80% pot | 44.4% | 30.8% | 55.6% |
| 100% pot | 50% | 33.3% | 50% |
| 110% pot | 52.4% | 34.4% | 47.6% |
The 80% row is 80 ÷ 180, 80 ÷ 260 and 100 ÷ 180; the 110% row is 110 ÷ 210, 110 ÷ 320 and 100 ÷ 210. So a sound heads-up defender folds roughly 44–52% here, and anything well above that hands the bettor a profit with any two cards.
These are also the most expensive mistakes short of an all-in. On the turn and river of a raised pot, a pot-sized bet can easily be 20–40 big blinds, so a player who folds 65% to them, or calls 85% of the time, swings a lot of money per spot.
The gap with smaller sizes is the real read. Players who call small bets with everything often tighten up sharply against pot-sized bets; players who don’t change at all are size-blind. Against the first, bluff big and value bet smaller; against the second, value bet big and bluff rarely.
Too low, about right, too high
The HUD colors this stat against 30–60%, the same typical range it uses for every size. For pot-sized bets the math puts a sound heads-up defender in the upper half of that band: folds of about 44% against an 80% bet up to about 52% against 110%. Multiway samples push the number up a little more, and under 30% means calling pot-sized bets far more than the price requires.
Too low: under 30%
What it says
They call or raise seven or more pot-sized bets in ten. The price asks for 33.3% equity, so they’re calling with hands that often don’t have it: second pair, weak top pairs on scary boards, draws without the odds. This is the classic station, size-blind and curious; their went to showdown will be high and their aggression low. A low number with a high raise rate is rarer and means a player who answers big bets by shoving, which calls for a different plan.
How to exploit it
- Bet pot for value with every hand that beats one pair on the turn and river: two pair, sets, top pair with a good kicker on dry runouts. They pay the maximum.
- Never bluff pot-sized. A pot bluff that gets 30% folds loses 0.7 × pot − 0.3 × pot = 0.4 of a pot per try.
- Build the pot early with strong hands, so a pot-sized river bet is a big number when they call it.
- Check back thin value that can’t stand a raise. A station that raises a pot-sized bet is rarely bluffing.
About right: 30–60%
What it says
They defend roughly in line with the price. In heads-up pots a balanced player sits around 44–52%; numbers in the 30s are fine against bettors who bluff a lot, and numbers near 60% can be right in a game where pot-sized bets are almost always value. Inside this band the number tells you little on its own; the street pattern and the gap with smaller sizes tell you more.
How to exploit it
- Check the river separately. Many players defend pot-sized turn bets reasonably and then fold too much to a pot-sized river bet with one pair. A river number over 55% is the opening.
- Compare with medium bets. If their large number is barely higher than their medium number, make your value bets large; if it jumps 15 points or more, make your bluffs large.
- Multiway: two players folding 50% each to a pot bet leave a 25% chance everyone folds (0.5 × 0.5), half of the 50% a bluff needs.
- Check raise vs bet before betting pot thin; a player who raises big bets often punishes thin value.
Too high: over 60%
What it says
They fold most of the time to a pot-sized bet, more than the 50% that makes any pure bluff profitable. They continue with two pair or better and a few strong draws; one-pair hands go. Often this is a Nit or Rock, but it’s also the ordinary home-game player who reads a big bet as the nuts because at their table it usually is. Their check-raise rate is usually low too.
How to exploit it
- Bluff pot-sized on turns and rivers where your story holds. At 65% folds a pot bluff earns 0.65 × pot − 0.35 × pot = 0.3 of a pot per try.
- Pick scary cards: overcards, flush-completing cards, four to a straight. They need a reason to fold one pair, and these supply it.
- Value bet smaller. A pot-sized bet folds out the hands you want paid by; bet 50–66% with top pair to get called by worse.
- When they call or raise a pot-sized bet, believe it.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: fold vs 80–110% bet
Pot-sized flop bets are uncommon from solid players and common from one home-game type: the player who bets pot with every made hand, or who protects an overpair with a big bet on a wet board. Defenders don’t see many, so the flop version fills slowly and can stay faded for a long time.
With two cards to come, the defender has the most equity to work with. A flush draw completes by the river about 35% of the time (9 outs over two cards: 1 − 38/47 × 37/46), right around the 33.3% a caller needs against pot. So flop folds to pot bets should run lower than turn and river folds; a high flop number means they fold draws and middle pairs that should continue.
Flop exploit: against a high flop number, bet pot on wet flops with your semi-bluffs, collecting folds and keeping 30–35% equity when called. Against a low one, bet pot with sets and overpairs on wet boards; they’ll pay with draws that are behind.
Turn: fold vs 80–110% bet
The turn is where pot-sized bets are most common: a big second barrel after a card that helps the bettor’s range, or a value bettor building toward a river shove. A called pot-sized turn bet triples the pot (pot + bet + call), so whatever comes on the river is a big bet compared with the stacks behind. Players feel that commitment coming and fold more.
That’s the typical leak at this size: folding one pair on the turn when the bettor still has plenty of bluffs. A turn number over 60% against large bets means a turn pot bet is an immediate profit with any two cards.
Turn exploit: if their turn number is high, bet pot on turns that bring an overcard or a flush card, with your draws and your give-ups alike. If it’s under 30%, bet pot only with hands that want to get all-in by the river, and give up your bluffs.
River: fold vs 80–110% bet
On the river a pot-sized bet is fully polarized: the bettor has a hand that beats most calls, or nothing. The caller needs 33.3% equity, so a bluff-catcher should call if at least a third of the bettor’s range is bluffs. That depends heavily on who is betting. In many home games pot-sized river bets lean toward value, and folding a lot against those players is sensible.
So read the river number against the bettors this player usually faces. A player who folds 70% to large river bets may be making a fair adjustment to the passive players at their table, and still be exploitable by you if you bluff.
River exploit: against a high river number, bluff pot with missed draws that hold a card the caller would need for their best hands. Against a low one, bet pot with two pair or better and never bluff: they’ll call with one pair often enough to pay for it.
When it’s your own number
There’s no read hint on this stat, so no sentence is printed about you, but players can see your number when you face their pot-sized bets. If yours is high, aggressive opponents will bluff pot on scary turns and rivers; if it’s very low, they’ll value bet you big and never bluff.
Benchmark it at about 44–52% heads-up. If your river number is well over 60%, start calling more with your best one-pair hands, especially ones that block value. If it’s under 30% and your won at showdown is low, you’re paying off: fold more second pairs to pot-sized river bets.
Using it on the HUD
Players facing a bet of 80–110% of the pot show this number on their badge, picked by the size of the bet in front of them, your own pot-sized bets included. None of the default size buttons (20%, 33%, 66% and 133%) falls in this bucket, so with the defaults the panel shows small, medium and overbet fold rates under its buttons, not this one. It’s also on the player database page.
The number turns gold over 60% and blue under 30%, and it’s faded under 12 chances, which can take a while since large bets are less common than medium ones in most games. There are no position or pot-type versions, just one number per street. A 50% reading is ±9 points over 30 chances and ±5 over 100. Read it with fold vs medium bets and fold vs overbets for the size curve, and with river call wins to see whether their calls are good.
Questions
What is a good fold percentage against pot-sized bets?
Around 50% or a little less heads-up. A pot-sized bluff needs exactly 50% folds, so folding more lets any two cards profit, and the caller needs 33.3% equity. Across the whole 80–110% bucket the break-even folds run from 44.4% to 52.4%. The HUD’s typical range is 30–60%, so a sound defender sits in the upper half of it.
Why don’t the HUD’s bet buttons show fold vs large bets?
Because none of the default buttons falls in the 80–110% bucket. The defaults are 20% and 33% (small), 66% (medium) and 133% (overbet), so the panel shows those three buckets. You still see a player’s large-bet number on their badge whenever they face a bet that size, and on the player database page.
Should I call a pot-sized river bet with one pair?
It depends on how often that bettor bluffs. You need 33.3% equity, so calling is right if at least a third of their pot-sized river bets are bluffs. Against passive players who only bet pot with strong hands, folding one pair is usually fine. Against an aggressive player with shown river bluffs, call with your better pairs.
Is a pot-sized bet a large bet or an overbet?
A large bet. The HUD counts 80% to 110% of the pot as large, so a pot-sized bet of 100% and even a 110% bet land here. Only bets over 110% count as overbets. The pot is measured before the bet and includes earlier streets and dead money, so a bet that looks like “pot” to the bettor usually lands near the middle of this bucket.