Fold vs small bets (under 40% pot)

What it measures

Fold vs small bets answers one question: when this player faces a cheap bet, do they let it go? It looks at the first time on a street that they face a single bet (nobody has raised yet) sized under 40% of the pot, and counts how often they fold. Calling and raising both count as not folding.

At the table these are the 20% and 33% bets: the small c-bet on a dry ace-high flop, the third-pot stab when the preflop raiser checks, the little river bet a player makes to reach showdown cheaply. Any kind of bet lands here when it’s small, whoever made it: c-bets, donk bets, probes and stabs alike.

It’s one slice of fold vs bet, which mixes every size. It differs from fold to c-bet, which only counts c-bets but at any size, and from check-fold, which only counts players who checked first. Small bets are the size where folding should be rarest, so this is where you spot the player who throws away anything that missed, and the opposite type who never lets a cheap bet win.

How it’s calculated

A chance is the first time on a street a player faces a single bet, with no raise yet, where that bet was under 40% of the pot. If they fold, it counts. Fold vs small bets = folds ÷ chances, kept separately for the flop, turn and river.

• Bet size = the chips the bettor put in with that bet ÷ everything in the middle before it: earlier streets plus dead money such as a folded small blind.
• The edge: a bet of exactly 40% already counts as medium, so this bucket runs from a min-bet up to just under 40%.
• Once per street: only the first bet they face counts, and only if nobody raised it before it reached them.
• Multiway counts: a bet that was called before it reached them is still a single bet, so they get a chance too.
• Dead streets don’t count: a street only counts when at least two players could still bet on it (not everyone all-in).

There are no position or pot-type versions; when this size has too few hands, the HUD steps back to fold vs bet (any size).

Example: Theo opens to 2.5 big blinds and the big blind calls, so the flop pot is 5.5 big blinds (2.5 + 2.5 + the folded 0.5 small blind). A 2 big blind c-bet is 2 ÷ 5.5 = 36% and lands here; a 2.5 big blind bet is 45% and lands in medium. Over a few sessions Nadia faced a small flop bet 25 times and folded 6: 6 ÷ 25 = 24%.

Why it matters

Small bets are the cheapest bluffs in poker. Against a player who folds 50% to them, every small bet you make heads-up wins money before you look at your cards. The price the bettor needs, and the price the caller gets, from the HUD’s two small buttons and the 25% bet between them:

That price also sets your value sizing. At 19.9% equity to call a 33% bet, gutshots, bottom pair and two overcards all look like calls, so against a player who never folds, small bets become thin value bets: second pair on the river, top pair with a weak kicker on the turn.

The strongest read is the gap between sizes. Put this next to fold vs large bets: a player at 25% against small bets and 55% against large ones is reading your size, so your bluffs belong in the big sizes and your thin value in the small ones. A player at 25% against both ignores size: bet big with value and stop bluffing.

Too low, about right, too high

The HUD colors this stat against a 30–60% typical range, the same band it uses for every bet size. For small bets a sound defender belongs near the bottom of that band, or a little under it heads-up: a 33% bet only needs 24.8% folds. Multiway pots push the number up, because each player can fold more when the bet has to get past everyone.

On the flop, turn and river

Flop: fold vs <40% bet

F<40% typical 30–60%

The flop is where small bets live. Range c-bets on dry boards, 20–33% bets into several players and small stabs after the preflop raiser checks all land in this bucket, so the flop version fills fastest. It’s also the street where the defender has the most to continue with: pairs, draws, overcards and backdoor draws. On the flop they have the hands to defend close to the math.

Loose home games often sit at the low end. Players call a small flop bet with any piece because the price looks trivial, then fold the turn. If the flop number is low but the turn number is much higher, that’s the pattern: small flop bets get called, turn bets win.

Flop exploit: against a player over 60% here, c-bet 20–33% with your whole range on ace-high and king-high dry boards heads-up. Against a player under 30%, check your pure air and bet small only with hands that want a call.

Turn: fold vs <40% bet

F<40% typical 30–60%

Small turn bets are rarer and mean different things: block bets out of position, a small second barrel from a player who wants to keep the pot manageable, a small probe after the flop checked through. The pot has grown, so a 33% turn bet costs more chips even though the ratio is the same: 24.8% folds to break even, 19.9% equity to call.

Whoever reaches the turn has usually called something already, so the defending range is stronger, and the fold rate against small bets should fall, not rise. A turn number well above the flop number means the player floats flops with nothing and gives up when the next bet comes, even a cheap one.

Turn exploit: against a high turn number, bet 25–33% on blank turns with every hand that has no showdown value. Against a low one, use the small turn bet only for protection and thin value, and bet bigger with real hands.

River: fold vs <40% bet

F<40% typical 30–60%

On the river nothing is left to draw to, so folds against small bets come almost entirely from missed draws and hands with no showdown value. A caller needs 19.9% equity against a 33% bet, so any pair that beats a bluff should usually call. A high river fold rate against small bets therefore means the player reaches the river with plenty of air, often busted draws they called down with.

Small river bets in home games are mostly thin value or a blocker bet from a player who wants to set the price. Players facing them tend to call with anything that has showdown value, and a low river number is often correct play rather than a leak.

River exploit: if a player’s river number is low, bet 25–33% with thin value such as second pair or top pair with a weak kicker; they pay with worse. If it’s over 60%, a small river bluff with your missed draws needs only 24.8% folds and gets far more.

When it’s your own number

This stat has no read hint, so the HUD won’t write a sentence about yours, but anyone watching sees the number when you face a small bet. If yours is high, observant players bet small into you with any two cards and pick up pots cheaply; if it’s very low, they stop bluffing you and value bet thinner with third-pot bets.

Check it against the math. Heads-up, a 33% bet should get folds about a quarter of the time or less, so a flop number above 50% means you fold too many pairs, gutshots and backdoor draws: continue with them. If yours is under 20% and your went to showdown is high, you’re paying off thin value: let the weakest hands go on the turn and river.

Using it on the HUD

When a player faces a bet under 40% of the pot, their badge shows this number for that street. On your turn the 20% and 33% buttons both fall in this bucket, and under each one the panel shows the chance everyone folds at that size: each opponent’s fold rate at that size, multiplied together. If a player has too few hands at this size, the panel uses their fold vs bet (any size) instead.

Above 60% the number turns gold, under 30% blue, and with fewer than 12 chances it’s faded. The HUD keeps one number per street. Because this is a slice of fold vs bet, it fills slowly: a 30% reading carries about ±10 points over 20 chances and ±6.5 over 50, so wait for 30 or more before building a plan on it. Read it with fold vs medium bets, fold vs overbets and check-raise, which the panel shows for players who checked to you.

Questions