At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop F40–80%·Turn F40–80%·River F40–80%
- Formula
folds / first times they faced a single bet of 40–80% of the pot on the street- Typical range
30–60% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: players facing a bet of this size. Panel on your turn: under each bet-size button.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
Fold vs medium bets tracks the most ordinary spot in postflop poker: someone bets between 40% and 80% of the pot and this player has to decide. It counts the first time on a street they face a single, unraised bet in that range, and how often they fold rather than call or raise.
This bucket holds the half-pot c-bet, the two-thirds barrel on a wet turn and the standard river value bet. On the HUD it’s the 66% button. Because so much betting in most games happens at these sizes, it’s probably the bucket you’ll lean on most, and the one where a player’s habits show up soonest.
It differs from fold vs bet, which blends every size, and from fold to c-bet, which only counts c-bets but at any size. A medium bet from a donk bettor, a prober or a player stabbing after a missed c-bet counts here too. Medium is the middle of the size ladder: pricier to bluff than a small bet, much cheaper than a pot-sized bet or an overbet.
How it’s calculated
A chance is the first time on a street a player faces one bet (no raise yet) that was 40% to 80% of the pot. Folding counts; calling and raising don’t. Fold vs medium bets = folds ÷ chances, kept per street.
- Size = the bettor’s chips for that bet ÷ everything already in the middle, including earlier streets and dead blinds.
- Edges: exactly 40% counts here; exactly 80% belongs to the large bucket. So medium runs from 40% up to just under 80%.
- Multiway: every player who faces the bet unraised gets a chance, including players sitting behind a caller.
- All-in streets: a street where fewer than two players could still bet doesn’t count.
It has no position or pot-type versions; it’s the medium-size split of fold vs bet, and the HUD falls back to fold vs bet (any size) when this size has too few hands.
Example: the turn pot is 20 big blinds and Gus bets 13. That’s 13 ÷ 20 = 65%, a medium bet. Over a few sessions Leo faced a medium turn bet 18 times and folded 8: 8 ÷ 18 = 44%. At 18 chances that 44% is a rough guide, not a verdict: the error is about ±12 points (√(0.44 × 0.56 ÷ 18)).
Why it matters
Medium bets set the baseline price, and the price moves quickly inside this bucket:
| Bet | Bluff needs folds | Caller needs equity | Minimum defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50% pot | 33.3% | 25% | 66.7% |
| 66% pot | 39.8% | 28.4% | 60.2% |
| 75% pot | 42.9% | 30% | 57.1% |
The HUD’s 30–60% typical range straddles those break-even points, so small differences between players matter here. A player who folds 50% to your 66% bets gives up about ten points more often than a pure bluff needs (50% against 39.8%), and every bluff you make into them shows a profit.
It also tells you about their calls. A player who folds under 30% is continuing well past the 60–67% defense the math asks for at 50–66%, with hands that often lack the 25–28% equity they need: weak gutshots, bottom pair on wet boards, ace-high. Value bet them relentlessly at this size.
Compare it with the neighbors. Against small bets the fold rate should be lower, against large bets and overbets higher. A player whose number barely moves between 33% and 66% ignores size, so use the bigger size for value. A player who folds much more at 66% than at 33% is size-sensitive: bluff with the 66% button and value bet with 33%.
Too low, about right, too high
The HUD colors every bet size against the same 30–60% typical range. For medium bets the theory lands inside it: heads-up, a defender should fold no more than 33.3% against a half-pot bet and 42.9% against a three-quarter-pot bet. A good player’s number sits roughly in the 33–43% stretch heads-up, a little higher when much of the sample is multiway.
Too low: under 30%
What it says
They call or raise more than seven times in ten against half-pot to three-quarter-pot bets. That’s more defense than the math asks for even at 50% (66.7%), so their continuing range includes plenty of hands with too little equity: weak draws, bottom pair, ace-high. Expect a Station or Fish label, a high went to showdown and a low aggression factor. If their raise rate is high instead, they’re fighting back rather than calling, which is a different player to plan against.
How to exploit it
- Cut medium-size bluffs to almost nothing. A 66% bluff needs 39.8% folds; under 30%, it loses chips every time you try it.
- Value bet wider: top pair with any kicker, second pair on dry boards, and on the turn even strong draws that want a bigger pot. If their fold vs large bets is also low, move your value bets up to pot.
- Plan three streets of value. A player who calls 66% on the flop and turn often calls the river too; their river number confirms it.
- Take free cards with your draws in position rather than semi-bluffing into someone who won’t fold.
About right: 30–60%
What it says
They defend roughly in line with the price: pairs and decent draws continue, air folds. A sound heads-up player sits around 33–43% here; readings in the upper half of the band usually mean plenty of multiway pots in the sample, or a player who folds a bit too much to second and third bets. Most regulars land in this band, so the number alone rarely changes your plan.
How to exploit it
The edges are in where the number moves.
- Street by street: many players defend the flop properly at this size and then fold too much on the turn. If the turn number is 10 or more points above the flop number, double barrel 66% with your air and draws.
- Size by size: if their fold vs large bets is close to their medium number, bet pot for value; they call about as often and pay more.
- Multiway: two players folding 45% each give a 66% bet only about a 20% chance (0.45 × 0.45) that everyone folds, half of the 39.8% a bluff needs. The panel shows that product under the 66% button; respect it.
Too high: over 60%
What it says
They give up on six or more medium bets in ten. At 66% a bluff needs 39.8% folds, so they’re overfolding by 20 points or more, continuing only with top pair or better and strong draws. This is the Nit and Rock pattern, and in home games also the player who called preflop with a wide range and has nothing on most flops. Check check-raise: if it’s low too, they never fight back, and their folds are pure surrender.
How to exploit it
- Bet 66% with all your air heads-up on the flop and turn. A pure bluff that risks 8 big blinds to win a 12 big blind pot and works 60% of the time earns 0.6 × 12 − 0.4 × 8 = 4 big blinds per try.
- Don’t shrink to 33% just because they fold a lot. If their fold vs small bets is also high, small is cheaper; if it’s normal, the medium size is what makes them fold.
- Believe their calls and raises. Their continuing range is narrow and strong, so thin value bets on later streets lose.
- Check back thin river value after they’ve called two medium bets: they’re rarely worse.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: fold vs 40–80% bet
On the flop, medium bets are mostly c-bets on boards that hit the caller’s range or offer draws: two-tone boards, connected middle cards, multiway pots where a third of the pot won’t push anyone out. The defending range is still wide and full of draws, so a sound heads-up defender folds around a third to 40% of the time against 50–66% bets.
Loose home games often show the opposite leak to the turn: players call a half-pot flop bet with any pair or draw, then fold to the next bet. A flop number under 30% in those games usually means sticky calls rather than strength, and you’ll see it confirmed when their turn number jumps.
Flop exploit: against a high flop number, bet 50–66% with your whole range on wet boards heads-up, where the caller’s range should have the most to defend with. If they still fold over 60% there, they aren’t defending their draws, and every c-bet prints.
Turn: fold vs 40–80% bet
The turn is where medium bets get expensive. In a 3-bet pot that starts the flop around 20 big blinds, a called 66% flop bet makes the turn pot about 46 big blinds (20 + 2 × 13.2), and a 66% turn bet is then about 31 big blinds, close to a third of a 100 big blind stack. The defending range is narrower because they called the flop, which in theory keeps the fold rate near the flop level, yet many players fold noticeably more here: their flop calls were draws and weak pairs that can’t take a second bet.
A big gap between the flop and turn numbers is the most profitable thing on this page. It says the flop call was a float or a weak hand they’ll release.
Turn exploit: if their turn number is over 55% and at least 10 points above their flop number, double barrel 66% on blank turns with every hand that missed. If the turn number is under 30%, stop barreling air and value bet top pair again.
River: fold vs 40–80% bet
On the river a medium bet is usually value or a bluff, with fewer in-between hands than on earlier streets. The caller needs 25% equity against a half-pot bet and 30% against three-quarters, so calling with a bluff-catcher is right whenever the bettor bluffs at least that often. River folds against medium bets therefore show how a player handles a bluff-catcher.
A high river number means they fold one-pair hands to a normal-sized bet, the perfect target for turning missed draws into bluffs at 50–75%. A low river number means they call with anything that beats a bluff; in loose games that’s common and only costs them against bettors who rarely bluff.
River exploit: against a player under 30%, bet 66–75% with any hand that beats second pair; they pay. Against a player over 60%, bluff 66% with your busted draws, preferably ones holding a card the caller needs for their best hands.
When it’s your own number
No read hint is attached, so the HUD won’t print a sentence about you, but observant players see your number when you face their bets. If yours is high, they’ll bet 66% with every missed hand; if it’s very low, they’ll stop bluffing you and value bet thinner.
Test yourself against the price. Heads-up you should fold roughly 33–43% against 50–75% bets. If your flop number is near 55% or above, you’re folding gutshots, backdoor draws and bottom pair too often. If your turn number is much higher than your flop number, your flop calls are too loose: either fold more flops or plan to continue on more turns.
Using it on the HUD
Players facing a medium bet show this number on their badge, picked by the size of the bet in front of them. On your turn the 66% button falls in this bucket, and the panel shows under it the chance everyone folds: each opponent’s fold rate at this size, multiplied together. When a player has too few hands at this size, the panel uses their fold vs bet (any size) instead.
The number turns gold over 60%, blue under 30%, and shows faded under 12 chances. It’s kept per street, with no position or pot-type versions. As a slice of fold vs bet it needs time: a 50% reading is ±9 points over 30 chances and ±5 over 100. Read it alongside fold vs small bets and fold vs large bets for the size gap, and raise vs bet, which the panel also uses to show who raises your size.
Questions
What is a good fold percentage against half-pot bets?
About a third or less heads-up. A 50% pot bet needs 33.3% folds to profit as a bluff, so folding more than that lets the bettor win with any two cards. Against 66% the line moves to 39.8% and against 75% to 42.9%. The HUD’s typical range for medium bets is 30–60%, with multiway pots pushing numbers up.
What counts as a medium bet on the HUD?
A bet from 40% up to just under 80% of the pot before it. Exactly 40% counts as medium and exactly 80% counts as large. The 66% button is the only default button in this bucket. The pot includes earlier streets and dead money such as a folded small blind, so check the real ratio: 3 big blinds into a 5.5 big blind pot is 55%.
Why do players fold more on the turn than the flop to the same bet size?
Usually because their flop calls were too loose. Players call a half-pot flop bet with weak draws and bottom pairs, then can’t continue when the turn bet is bigger in chips. In theory the turn number should sit close to the flop number at the same size. A gap of 10 points or more is your signal to double barrel.
Is fold vs medium bets the same as fold to c-bet?
No. Fold to c-bet counts only c-bets, at any size. Fold vs medium bets counts any single bet of 40–80% of the pot, whether it was a c-bet, donk bet, probe or stab. A player can fold normally to c-bets but overfold to medium donk bets they don’t expect, and this stat catches that.