At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop F>110%·Turn F>110%·River F>110%
- Formula
folds / first times they faced a single bet of over 110% of the pot on the street- Typical range
30–60% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: players facing a bet of this size. Panel on your turn: under each bet-size button.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
Fold vs overbets measures the biggest size on the ladder: a bet of more than 110% of the pot. It counts the first time on a street a player faces a single bet that large, with no raise in front of it, and how often they fold.
Overbets come in a few forms: the 133% turn bet after a card that favors the bettor, the 150–200% river bet that splits into nuts or air, and the all-in shove for more than the pot. In home games you also see them from players who overbet every strong hand to “get paid”, and from players who shove draws to end the hand.
It’s the top rung after small, medium and large bets, and the widest bucket: it runs from just over pot to shoves several times the pot. That matters, because the same fold rate can be an overfold against 133% bets and perfectly sound against 200%. It differs from fold vs bet, where overbets are a small slice of all sizes, and from overbet share, which counts how often a player makes overbets rather than how they answer them.
How it’s calculated
A chance is the first time on a street a player faces a single, unraised bet of more than 110% of the pot. A fold counts; a call or a raise doesn’t. Fold vs overbets = folds ÷ chances, per street.
- Size = the bettor’s chips for that bet ÷ everything in the middle before it, earlier streets and dead money included.
- Edge: exactly 110% is still a large bet. The overbet bucket starts just above it and has no top, so a shove for three times the pot lands here too.
- Bets, not raises: an all-in that opens the betting counts; a shove over someone’s bet is a raise, so players facing it don’t get a chance here.
- One chance per street, multiway included. A street is left out when fewer than two players could still bet on it.
Nothing narrower is kept, by position or by pot type, and when the overbet sample is too thin the HUD falls back to fold vs bet (any size).
Example: the turn pot is 15 big blinds and Sol bets 20. That’s 20 ÷ 15 = 133%, an overbet. Ana has faced a turn overbet 7 times and folded 5: 5 ÷ 7 = 71%. At 7 chances that number is faded and could be off by about 17 points (√(0.71 × 0.29 ÷ 7)), and the panel may well be showing her fold vs bet at any size instead.
Why it matters
Overbets decide the biggest pots, and they’re where players misjudge the price most:
| Bet | Bluff needs folds | Caller needs equity | Minimum defense |
|---|---|---|---|
| 133% pot | 57.1% | 36.3% | 42.9% |
| 150% pot | 60% | 37.5% | 40% |
| 200% pot | 66.7% | 40% | 33.3% |
| 300% pot (shove) | 75% | 42.9% | 25% |
The 300% row is 300 ÷ 400, 300 ÷ 700 and 100 ÷ 400. Look at the caller’s column: 36.3% against 133%, barely more than the 33.3% needed against a pot bet. Yet many players fold far more often to overbets than to pot bets. That gap is the leak: they treat “bigger than the pot” as “the nuts”.
For the bettor, a player who folds 70% to overbets makes 133%, 150% and 200% bluffs all profitable with any two cards, and each one wins a bigger pot than a small bet ever would. The catch is sample size. The HUD’s typical range for overbet share is 0–12% of bets, so even a regular may face only a handful of overbets in a session.
Too low, about right, too high
The HUD colors this stat against 30–60%, the same band as every other size. For overbets the math sits at the top of it or above: 57.1% is the most a defender can fold against 133%, 60% against 150%, 66.7% against 200%. A sound player can read 55–65% here, while a number in the 30s or below means calling overbets far more often than any of those prices needs.
Too low: under 30%
What it says
They call or raise more than seven overbets in ten, well past the 42.9% defense a 133% bet asks for. Two kinds of player do this: the station who can’t fold any pair once the pot is big, and the suspicious player who assumes a big bet is a bluff. Both turn up in home games, and both pay off value overbets. Check went to showdown: if it’s high as well, you’re looking at a station.
How to exploit it
- Overbet for value. With the nuts or close to it on the turn or river, bet 133–200%: they call often enough that the bigger size wins more than a pot bet.
- Never overbet-bluff them. A 133% bluff that gets 30% folds loses 0.7 × 1.33 − 0.3 × 1 = 0.63 of a pot per try.
- Widen your value overbets to two pair and sets, not only the nuts: their calling range is full of one-pair hands.
- When they raise an overbet, believe it. In most games few players raise a bet that large as a bluff.
About right: 30–60%
What it says
They defend overbets inside a range the math can support. Heads-up, the 50s are close to theory against 133–150% bets; the 30s and 40s mean they call more than they need to, which only costs them against value-heavy overbettors. Because overbets are rare, many players sit here on fewer than 20 chances, so a “normal” reading is often just a thin sample.
How to exploit it
- Count the chances in the tooltip before using it. With few overbet hands the panel falls back to their fold vs bet at any size, which says little about overbets.
- Match the overbet size to the number. If they fold 55%, a 133% bluff (57.1% needed) is about break-even and a 200% one (66.7%) loses; keep overbet bluffs near 133%.
- Compare with fold vs large bets. If they fold 45% to pot bets and 58% to overbets, the extra size buys 13 points of folds: use it on turns where your range holds the nuts.
- Value overbet against the low half of this band; bluff-overbet only against the high half.
Too high: over 60%
What it says
They fold most overbets, more than the 57.1% that makes a 133% bluff profitable. This is the most common way players mis-defend against overbets: one pair, even top pair or an overpair, goes in the muck because the bet is bigger than the pot. Nits do it everywhere, and many otherwise loose home-game players do it too, because the overbets they face are usually value. A much lower fold vs large bets is the tell.
How to exploit it
- Overbet-bluff turns and rivers when the card helps your range: overcards to the board, the fourth card to a straight, a flush you could have. At 70% folds a 133% bluff earns 0.7 × 1 − 0.3 × 1.33 = 0.30 of a pot per try.
- Use the 133% button rather than a shove: it needs fewer folds than bigger sizes and costs less when they do call.
- With strong value, bet pot or less instead; they call smaller bets with the same hands that fold to overbets.
- When they call your overbet, stop bluffing the next street: their calls are strong.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: fold vs >110% bet
Flop overbets are rare. They come from short stacks shoving into a pot that is already large compared with what’s behind, from 3-bet pots with little left to play for, and from home-game players who overbet strong hands on wet boards to “protect” them. Each defender sees few, so the flop version can stay faded for a long time.
With two cards to come, the defender’s equity is at its highest: a flush draw completes about 35% of the time by the river (9 outs over two cards), close to the 36.3% a caller needs against a 133% bet when the money goes in now. A high flop number means they fold draws and pairs that could happily call or shove.
Flop exploit: against a player over 60% here, a 133% semi-bluff with a flush draw or open-ender picks up the pot often and still has around a third of the equity when called. Against a player under 30%, overbet sets and overpairs on draw-heavy flops and let them chase.
Turn: fold vs >110% bet
The turn is the classic overbet street. After a card that shifts the strongest hands toward the bettor, such as an overcard on a board where the caller rarely has it, a 133% bet puts maximum pressure on one-pair hands. Players facing their first turn overbet often hold top pair or a good draw, and that’s exactly the range that folds too much.
The pot math adds pressure: a called 133% turn bet makes the pot 3.66 times as big as it was (1 + 2 × 1.33), so with 100 big blind stacks the river usually comes down to a single shove. Defenders see that coming and fold now.
Turn exploit: if their turn number is over 60%, overbet turns that favor your range with both your best bluffs and your nut hands. If it’s under 30%, overbet only for value and expect to get stacks in by the river.
River: fold vs >110% bet
River overbets are fully polarized: the bettor has the nuts or a missed draw, and the caller has a bluff-catcher. The caller needs 36.3% against 133%, 37.5% against 150% and 40% against 200%. Against a balanced bettor, folding the weakest bluff-catchers to a big river overbet is fine, but folding the best ones is a mistake.
Home games tilt this. Many river overbets come from players who only make them with the nuts, and folding everything but the nuts against them is correct. The river number partly reflects who the player has been facing, so its best use is predicting what they do against your overbets.
River exploit: against a river number over 60%, overbet-bluff with missed draws that hold a card from the nut hands they fear. Against one under 30%, overbet with two pair, straights and flushes; their one-pair hands call.
When it’s your own number
No read hint is attached, so the HUD won’t print a sentence about you, but opponents watching your badge when you face an overbet can see the number. If yours is high, a thinking player overbets the turn and river with every bluff that makes sense; if it’s very low, they overbet only for value and get paid.
Set your benchmark by size: fold at most about 57% against 133%, 60% against 150% and 67% against 200% heads-up. If you’re well over that, call down more with your best bluff-catchers: top pair with a good kicker, overpairs, hands that block the nuts. If you’re under 30% and losing at showdown, fold more one-pair hands to big river bets.
Using it on the HUD
When a player faces a bet over 110% of the pot, their badge shows this number for that street. On your turn the 133% button falls in this bucket, and the panel shows under it the chance everyone folds to an overbet: every opponent’s overbet fold rate, multiplied together. Few players have many overbet hands, so the panel often falls back to fold vs bet (any size).
Above 60% the number turns gold, under 30% blue, and it’s faded under 12 chances. Each street has its own number and nothing narrower. Treat it as a lean for a long time: a 60% reading is about ±14 points over 12 chances and ±9 over 30. Read it beside fold vs large bets, the bettor’s overbet share and river call wins.
Questions
What is a good fold percentage against overbets?
It depends on the overbet. Against a 133% bet, a defender who folds more than 57.1% lets any two cards bluff profitably; against 150% the line is 60%, against 200% it’s 66.7%. The HUD’s typical range is 30–60%. A sound player usually reads in the 50s heads-up, shifting with the overbet sizes their table uses.
Why do players overfold to overbets?
Because a bet bigger than the pot feels like the nuts, and in many home games it often is. Players fold top pair and overpairs even though the caller only needs 36.3% equity against 133%, barely more than the 33.3% needed against a pot bet. If their fold vs overbets is well above their fold vs large bets, use the 133% button to bluff.
How much equity do you need to call an overbet?
36.3% against a 133% bet, 37.5% against 150% and 40% against twice the pot. The formula is bet ÷ (pot + 2 × bet). Compare that with how often the bettor bluffs: if more than about 36% of their 133% overbets are bluffs, calling with a hand that beats every bluff is profitable.
Does an all-in shove count as an overbet?
Yes, if it opens the betting on the street and is larger than 110% of the pot. A river shove for twice the pot lands in this bucket. A shove over someone else’s bet doesn’t, because that’s a raise and this stat only counts single, unraised bets. At twice the pot, the shover needs 66.7% folds to profit with a pure bluff.