At a glance
- On the HUD
- Flop FvB·Turn FvB·River FvB
- Formula
folds / first times they faced a single bet on the street- Typical range
35–60% on every street
- Where it shows
- Badge: everyone in the hand when nobody holds the lead. Panel on your turn: the fallback when there are too few hands at your bet size.
- Trust it after
- 12 chances. Below that the number is faded; reads need 12 chances and a number at least one standard error outside the typical range.
What it measures
FvB answers the simplest postflop question: someone bets, nobody has raised, and this player has to respond for the first time on the street. How often do they fold? Every kind of bet counts: a c-bet, a donk bet, a stab, a probe, or a bet in a limped pot.
The narrower fold stats each take one slice. Fold to c-bet only counts the bet from the player with the lead; fold to donk bet, fold to stab and fold to probe count their own kind of bet; check-fold only counts bets they face after checking. FvB covers all of those plus the bets none of them name. It’s also kept by size, and each size has its own page: small bets, medium bets, large bets and overbets.
Which one to use: if the bet in front of them has a name and that stat has a decent sample, use it. If the sample is thin, the spot has no name, or you’re sizing up a new player, use FvB. When you’re the one betting, the size versions matter more than this blend, because the same player can fold 60% to a pot-size bet and 25% to a third-pot bet.
How it’s calculated
- Chance: the first time on the street they face a single bet that nobody has raised, even if others have already called it.
- Counts if: they fold. Calls and raises are the other answers.
- Kept by size: the bettor’s chips divided by everything in the middle before the bet, sorted into under 40% of the pot, 40–80%, 80–110%, or over 110%. Each bucket is a stat of its own.
- Not a chance: later decisions on the same street, a bet that was already raised before they acted, and streets where fewer than two players could still bet.
Formula: folds ÷ first times they faced a single bet on the street. Unlike raise vs bet, it doesn’t need chips behind to raise, so a player who can only call all-in or fold still counts.
Example: Sam faced a first flop bet 52 times and folded 24, so his flop FvB is 24 / 52 = 46%, comfortably inside the range. By size, he folded 6 of 20 bets under 40% of the pot (30%), 13 of 24 bets of 40–80% (54%), 4 of 6 bets of 80–110% and 1 of 2 overbets. A 33% bet needs 24.8% folds to work as a bluff and a 66% bet needs 39.8%, so Sam folds too much to both sizes, and by far more at 66%. His “normal” 46% hides a clear leak.
Why it matters
Every bluff and semi-bluff runs on fold rate. A bet that wins the pot right away often enough is profitable before your equity even counts, and fold rate by size tells you whether it does.
On your turn, under each bet-size button, the panel shows the chance everyone folds at that size: each player’s fold rate for the size bucket your bet falls in, multiplied together. When a player has fewer than 12 chances at that size, the panel uses their FvB instead. Compare the result with what the size needs. The last column is the fold rate each of two players needs when both fold equally often: the square root of the break-even.
| Button | Size bucket | Bluff needs folds | Each of two players must fold |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | Under 40% | 16.7% | 40.8% |
| 33% | Under 40% | 24.8% | 49.8% |
| 66% | 40–80% | 39.8% | 63.1% |
| 133% | Over 110% | 57.1% | 75.6% |
Example: two players fold 50% and 55% to bets under 40% of the pot, so a 33% bluff gets through 0.50 × 0.55 = 27.5% of the time, above the 24.8% it needs. At 66% they fold 60% and 62%: 0.60 × 0.62 = 37.2%, short of 39.8%. They fold more to the bigger bet, yet the small bet is the better bluff.
Too low, about right, too high
Too low: under 35%
What it says
They call or raise most first bets. Stations and Fish live here: they peel flops with any pair or draw and often keep calling. In PokerNow home games this is common, and it’s a big reason pure bluffs often lose money there. Their calling range is wide and weak, so value bets get paid by worse hands, and the folds they do make come mostly from complete misses.
How to exploit it
- Cut pure bluffs, small ones included. A player folding 30% barely clears a 33% bet’s 24.8% alone, and adding a second opponent sinks it.
- Value-bet thinner and bigger: top pair for three streets, second pair for one or two.
- Semi-bluff only with real equity, such as flush draws and open-enders, since you’ll be called often.
- Size up with value. If their folds barely change between the small and medium buckets, a 66% bet wins twice what a 33% bet does when called.
- Check their size buckets. Some sticky players still fold to overbets, which gives you one bluffing size that works.
About right: 35–60%
What it says
They fold a reasonable share of first bets overall. That doesn’t make them balanced. As Sam’s example shows, a 46% blend can hide heavy overfolding against small bets or bad calling against big ones, because the any-size number depends on which sizes they happened to face. Players who mostly face small bets look stickier than they are. Treat the blend as a starting point until the size buckets fill.
How to exploit it
Move to the size buckets as soon as they have 12 chances, and compare each one with the break-even for that size: a player at 30% against bets under 40% overfolds to a 33% bet, while 50% against overbets is calling too much against a 133% bet that needs 57.1%. Then split by spot: their fold to c-bet in and out of position often differs from their folds to leads and stabs. Do the same comparison on the turn and river buckets, where the leaks are often bigger.
Too high: over 60%
What it says
They fold most first bets. They play fit-or-fold: hit the board or let it go. Nits, Rocks and weak-tight regulars land here, along with players who call too much preflop and then give up on most flops. When they do call, they have something, and when they raise, they usually have a lot. On a small sample, check the chance count: a run of missed flops can push anyone over 60%.
How to exploit it
- Bet small with a wide range. A 20% bet needs 16.7% folds and a 33% bet 24.8%; a 60%+ folder gives far more.
- Bet into them in every spot: stab when the raiser checks, lead into them, probe the turn.
- Give their calls credit. Don’t barrel the turn into a player who folds 65% but just called, unless the card helps you.
- Value-bet only good hands; their calling range is strong.
- When they raise your bet, fold everything but strong hands.
On the flop, turn and river
Flop: fold vs bet
The flop gives the most chances and the most folds. Most hands miss most flops, so even a sticky player folds a fair number of first flop bets. Flop FvB is also the most size-sensitive street, since small flop bets are common and they’re exactly the bets loose players call with anything.
Multiway flops change the math fast. Three players at 50% each fold together only 0.5 × 0.5 × 0.5 = 12.5% of the time, below even the 16.7% a 20% bet needs. That’s why the panel’s “everyone folds” number drops so sharply in limped pots with four or five players.
Flop exploit: in a heads-up pot against a flop FvB above 60%, bet 20–33% of the pot with your whole range on dry boards. In a multiway pot, bet only hands with value or real equity, whatever each player’s number.
Turn: fold vs bet
Turn first bets reach players who called the flop or checked it through. Players who called the flop usually hold a pair or a draw, so many fold less on the turn; players who float flops with nothing fold more. The gap between flop and turn FvB tells you which kind you face.
Pots are bigger on the turn, so the size buckets shift too: a turn bet of 66% is a lot of chips, and players who call small flop bets often fold to it. Check the turn size pages once they have a sample.
Turn exploit: if a player’s turn FvB is well above their flop number, they call flops with weak pairs and draws and give up on the next bet. Bet the turn after they call the flop, especially on cards that complete nothing, and keep betting your value hands the same way so your turn bets aren’t only bluffs.
River: fold vs bet
River FvB is a bluff-catching number. Draws are gone, so a player facing a river bet decides whether their hand beats your bluffs often enough to call. Low river FvB players call with any pair; high river FvB players fold everything but strong hands.
Read it with went to showdown. A low river FvB and a high WTSD confirm a player who pays off: value-bet any decent hand, and never bluff the river. A high river FvB with a low WTSD is a player you can bluff when the story makes sense.
River exploit: against a player who folds over 60% to river bets on a real sample, bluff your missed draws, and check the over-110% bucket. If they fold more than 57.1% to overbets, a 133% bluff works on its own, and it also gets paid more when you have the nuts.
When it’s your own number
The HUD doesn’t make a read from FvB, but anyone who opens your stats can see it. If yours runs above 60%, opponents will bet small into you in every spot and win pots without a hand. If it runs below 35%, they’ll stop bluffing you and value-bet you thinner.
To check yourself, look at your size buckets against the table. Against a 33% bet you need to continue 75.2% of the time to stop any two cards from bluffing profitably; against a 66% bet, 60.2%. Most players overfold to small bets, so the usual fix is to defend more against them with weak pairs, gutshots and backdoor draws, and to fold more of those against big bets.
Using it on the HUD
On the table badges, FvB shows for everyone in the hand while nobody holds the lead and nobody has bet, such as on a limped flop. Once someone bets, a player facing it shows their fold rate for that bet’s size instead. In the panel on your turn, FvB is the fallback: under each bet-size button the panel uses each player’s fold rate at that size, and switches to their FvB when that size has fewer than 12 chances.
Gold means above 60%, blue below 35%, and fewer than 12 chances show faded. There’s no read hint for it, so expect a color and no sentence. Samples come quickly on the flop and slowly on the river: at 50%, 30 chances leave ±9 points of error and 100 chances ±5. Read it with fold to c-bet and raise vs bet, and with the size pages once their buckets fill.
Questions
What does fold vs bet mean in poker?
Fold vs bet is how often a player folds the first time they face a single bet on a street, whatever the kind or size of bet. PokerNow HUD Advanced keeps it for the flop, turn and river, and also by bet size, so you can see how a player answers small bets, medium bets, pot-size bets and overbets separately.
What is a good fold vs bet percentage?
The HUD’s typical range is 35–60% on each street, but a good number depends on the sizes faced. Against a 33% bet, folding more than 24.8% lets any two cards bluff profitably; against a 66% bet the line is 39.8%. A player inside the range overall can still overfold badly to small bets, so check the size versions.
Fold vs bet or fold to c-bet: which should I use?
Use fold to c-bet when the bet in question is a c-bet and the player has a decent sample there, because it matches the spot. Fold vs bet counts every first bet, c-bets included, so it builds a sample faster and covers bets with no name, such as bets in limped pots. On a new player, start with fold vs bet.
How does the HUD work out the chance everyone folds?
It multiplies each remaining player’s fold rate at your bet size. Two players who fold 50% and 55% to small bets give 0.50 × 0.55 = 27.5%. If a player has fewer than 12 chances at that size, the panel uses their fold vs bet (any size) instead, so early numbers lean on the broader stat.